Primary Observations

Gold and silver exhibited steep declines for the month of June as various underlying pressures weighed down the prices of precious metals.

• Per an ounce of gold, prices fell approximately (-12.0%) month-over-month, down from $4,593.00, to approximately $4,038.00 an ounce at the end of this past month.

• Per an ounce of silver, the aforementioned proved to be the more volatile of the pair with prices falling approximately (-21.0%), going from $75.87 at the end of May, down to $59.92 in June.

As it relates to the sharp declines, the drop-off in prices does not appear to be concentrated (solely linked to one variable), rather connected to multiple factors that consist of both macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.

Declining Prices

Macroeconomic

Economic driven narratives have come into focus in recent weeks as the topic of interest rates continues under the newly appointed Fed chief Kevin Warsh.

According to the minutes of this past FOMC meeting back in June, Fed officials were split on the issue of rate increases. Notwithstanding, the general consensus implies that inflation remains elevated across the board, and if conflict in the Middle East resumes, the increase in oil prices raises the possibility of energy costs that subsequently cascades into core inflation.

As focus continues to shift towards inflation, with the possibility of rate hikes remaining on the table to stabilize economic pressure, the increase in interest rates will negatively impact precious metals. The prospect of higher interest rates typically fuels capital rotation into fixed-income investments which becomes more attractive than staying with precious metals.

Though the most recent (July) CPI figures show weaker-than-expected readings for this past month of 3.5%, prior anticipation of creeping inflation data did likely influence investors, causing them to rotate out of precious metals and into ancillary, less volatile investments that offer guaranteed returns on their money, weighing down prices on gold & silver.

Geopolitical Considerations

The conflicts both in Europe and the Middle East present challenging circumstances, but more so with the latter, whereby the geopolitical fallout has spilled onto precious metals.

Historically speaking, conflicts have usually sparked a flight to safe haven assets, particularly with gold, however, according to an article found in Investing.com, the war with Iran has created a type of crisis that has noticeably impeded capital flows, due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Prolonged closure of a major trade artery such as the Strait of Hormuz has wide-ranging consequences. The blockade essentially places a stranglehold on revenue streams for nations within the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) which are some of the most reliable buyers of precious metals. As oil-revenues contract, the aforementioned nations have less available funds on hand to purchase precious metals, and in some cases, may even be forced into selling down physical metals to meet fiscal obligations.

At the same time, you have larger nations like China, which is considered to be one of the most significant importers of oil from the Middle East. According to statistics (again, reported in Investing.com), the Chinese conduct significant amounts of trade and import an estimated 40-50% of their oil from the region. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz creates a trade shock which results in slower growth. As trade surpluses slow for the People’s Republic of China, so does the pace of reserve accumulation for precious metals.

The same could be said for other nations (perhaps to a lesser extent), that as trade surpluses contract (due to closure of a major trade artery) countries are more inclined to slow reserve accumulations which subsequently contributes to pressure on the price of precious metals.

Charts & Analysis

Relative Performance Observations

From a more illustrative standpoint, the drop-off in the prices of precious metals (namely gold and silver) are well apparent for the month of June when compared to equities. According to the chart, the S&P 500 remained relatively steady throughout this past month (which actually speaks to the resiliency of the stock market), while both gold and silver were observed as trending sharply lower.

Silver was the worst performing asset class of the trio, falling below its 200-day moving average:

• June 9th to approximately $64.00 an ounce, further extending the decline the following day. Based off reports from Yahoo Finance, silver had fallen roughly (-50.0%) from its all-time high.

Gold also exhibited steep declines, however, the trend line in the relative performance graph indicates the drop in prices remains tame compared to silver.

The price of gold, however, did come under pressure and fall below its 200-day moving average:

• June 5th, saw the aforementioned trade below the 200-day moving average, falling to $4,365.00 per troy oz.

It should be noted that given silver is the more volatile of the pair, and thus subject to greater price swings, the trend lines are not as stark with gold’s performance.

Notwithstanding, here is what I find particularly very telling about the relative performance chart…

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Primary Observations

Our initial impression regarding precious metals is that silver’s relative performance has fared noticeably better than gold towards the latter part of this past month. The chart below illustrates the relative performance between gold and silver, indicating for May that silver has outperformed its luminous counterpart.

Notwithstanding, overall activity for both asset classes has largely moved within tight trading ranges respective to their pricing; silver has clearly established itself as the more volatile among the pair with higher price swings and larger percentage movements.

• The price per troy ounce of silver increased by +2.5% to close out the month at $75.87 per ounce.

• The price per troy ounce of gold exhibited a decrease, declining by (-0.79%) for this same period, finishing the month at $4,593.00 per ounce.

Gold-to-Silver Ratio Summary

Pertaining to the GSR, this metric exhibited a net-decline as the ratio compressed on a month-over-month basis.

• The GSR closed out the end of May at 60.30, +1.45% for 5.29.26, but down (-3.81%), falling to an approximate ratio of 60:1 for this past month, compared to 62.69 or approximately 62:1 range at the end of April.

• May’s figures collectively represent a narrowing gap between gold and silver, which implies capital funds rotating into silver.

• We suspect that increased demand and inflation expectations were among the drivers behind this past month’s activity.

Even still, both precious metals prices have been pressured by the ongoing geopolitical developments and renewed talk about the Fed increasing interest rates.

From a broad-based perspective, prices in precious metals have been largely unable to breakout, (compared to late 2025-2026), subsequently frustrating long-term holders of gold and silver who were anticipating a continued price run-up for 2026.

Risk & Vulnerabilities

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Precious metals have had an impressive run-up heading into 2026, with gold and silver reaching all-time highs. Gold has crossed over $5,000 an ounce, and silver has briefly hovered above triple-digits itself, getting as high as $121.00 before retracing and settling back to around $80.00 per ounce.

Within this meteoric rise in prices, there’s also been tremendous volatility which has normalized 5% to 10% movements on any given day, making it seem like par for course. While commodities traders and investors experience lingering instances of irrational exuberance over the gains in precious metals, many, however, are left to wonder if these rare commodities have become something more than a safe haven asset that will allow the bull run to continue, and also, what the surge in prices really means from a broader economic standpoint.

Reasons for Run-Up

The price run-up in gold and silver cannot be solely tied to one reason. This past year, we have seen tighter controls put in place by China on exports of precious metals, whereby governments are more inclined to hoard than before, while at the same time, the U.S. expanded its designation of critical minerals to include silver, putting more eyes on precious metals.

Moreover, the continued sustainment of prices can be attributed to a number of underlying factors such as inflation, volatility in stocks, higher oil prices, surge in demand, and increasing geopolitical risk. This has fostered renewed interest that has attracted many more investors to precious metals, and recaptured the attention of institutional money managers. The aforementioned factors all combine to generate uncertainty in the broader market which has bolstered prices and could conceivably buoy the bull run for the foreseeable future.

According to an article from BlackRock Advisors, the analysis asserts that upward momentum in precious metals is driven by multiple factors, highlighting increasing government debt and uncertainty among them. Given these variables underscores the run up in precious metals, it goes without saying that the migration towards these assets make them much more than just a mere safe haven, and present a rather interesting opportunity for those wanting to shore up their positions in physical metals.

Economic Implications

The underlying question that needs to be asked is, ‘what does this mean from a macro standpoint,’ that gold and silver prices have run up from 2025 to 2026 to nearly 75% and 148%, respectively, with silver tacking on another 19% this past January.

• One reasonable assumption is that this means nothing good for the U.S. dollar as it’s weakened to a point where purchasing power has diminished and its value as the world’s reserve currency is routinely called into question.

• Inflationary pressure in the U.S. and abroad is becoming much more of a problem and people now realize it may be better to have physical assets on hand that retain their value over the long-term.

• Designation of precious metals (such as silver in particular) as a critical mineral due to various use cases by governments mean the world is going to need as much as it can mine, which will inevitably drive prices higher, and may subsequently overwhelm available supply.

Whatever the case may be, it is becoming clear that gold and silver are at the forefront of increased interest for many investors. While there remains some question of how much higher prices will go for precious metals, it is anyone’s guess on how quickly the next leg of the run-up happens.